Influence of the Caribbean Sea eddy field on Loop Current predictions

Previous studies have shown how the passage of eddies from Caribbean Sea (CS) to Gulf Mexico (GoM) can impact Loop Current (LC) system, in particular detachments LC Eddies (LCEs). Here we used numerical modeling investigate eddy field CS on predictions. We a HYCOM ocean model configuration North Atlantic at 1/12° resolution perform two data-assimilative experiments: one which all available observations were assimilated ( Ref ), and except CS, where climatological altimetry values instead actual observations, leading dampening mesoscale activity there NoCarib ). These experiments took place 2015, when was very active with several LCE detachments, re-attachments, separations. Each these initialize 28 60-day forecast simulations every 10 days. In terms Surface Height (SSH), forecasts initialized experiment had, average, lower errors than southeastern part GoM, peak during 31-40 day period. More importantly, predicting date next detachment or separation smaller more realistic experiment. Finally, by showed much higher level false negatives predictions, meaning that no predicted whereas actually happened. Overall, 68% an error 15 days experiment, but only 32% stressing importance for evolution. findings implications GoM predictability, highlighting need either run models covering both pay attention accurate boundary conditions limited-area models.